TRAFFORD'S NEXT TEN YEARS, 2016 - 2026
The Future Population of Trafford [top]
The Office for National Statistics release data about population projections, to 2037, using a range of factors, such as birth rate, death rate and migrant flows (local, national and international). Using 2016 - 2026 projections, data suggest that there will be an additional 15,700 people living in Trafford. In 2016, 234,600 people are estimated to be living in Trafford today.
The key points from the analysis show that there will be:
- No change to the number of 0-4 year olds
- 930 more 5-11 year olds
- 2,160 more 11-16 year olds
- 1,610 more 16-19 year olds
Relating this to impact on the education system, in order to maintain class sizes of approximately 30 children, Trafford would require:
- 31 additional primary school classes
- 72 additional secondary classes
- 1,610 more sixth form, apprenticeship, volunteering or employment opportunities for 16-19 year olds
From the other age groups, there are predicted to be
- 1,632 more women of child-bearing age (15-45 years)
- 4,940 more people of working age
- 7,340 more people aged 67 and over (pensionable age)
- 5,400 more elderly people aged 75 and over. (The cost of health and social care for this group is twice that for 35-44 year olds)
|Age Band||2016||2026||Number Change|
Trafford Population Change by Age Group, 2016 - 2026 [top]
Trafford is split into four localities. Applying the age-based population projections to localities (using a very simple model) show that there will be differences across the borough. For example - South Locality will likely see an increase of 535 additional 90+ year olds, while Old Trafford and Stretford will see an increase of 162.
Methodology NB: These projections should be used with caution. They have been calculated using ONS population estimates. The 2016 estimates are available at ward level, the 2026 are not and therefore this calculation is based on assumptions. The numbers presented are likely to be an underestimate of true change.
The Future of Trafford's Health [top]
Increasing Healthy Life Expectancy
Although life expectancy in Trafford is good, our healthy life expectancy is not. Healthy life expectancy is a measure of how many years people may live in a healthy state. Poor health results in poor functioning, reduced economic independence and increase public service use.
Residents in the more deprived areas of the borough start experiencing poorer health at least 10 years before pensionable age and can live for 20 years in poor health.
(Chart above is a work in progress)
Increasing healthy life expectancy will be one of the easier ways of balancing sector finances in future decades.
The NHS Five Year Forward View underlined the critical importance of a focus on prevention to address the preventable health burden and associated costs that place the sustainability of the NHS at risk. Unless we can increase our healthy life-expectancy in Trafford, we will see people suffering unnecessarily, as well as increasing the costs to themselves, their families, and society.
It's easy to underestimate the impact of effective preventative activity, but prevention gives an extremely high return on investment. As an example, it has been estimated by Public Health England that physical inactivity cost Trafford CCG at least £1,914,673 in 2013/14. This is likely to be an underestimate as it only included the costs associated with 5 of the over 20 chronic conditions that can be prevented or managed by physical activity.
We also know that in Trafford, people with serious mental illnesses are dying on average 3 years earlier than the rest of the population, and that this is due in the main to under diagnosis or treatment of physical illnesses, many of which will have preventable aspects.
Increased life expectancy for people living with a long-term condition, physical or learning disability
Significant improvements in diagnosis, understanding and care in recent decades have led to an increase in the life expectancy of people living with a long-term condition, physical or learning disability. Determining the exact number of Trafford residents living with a disability is difficult and often based on national prevalence.
In Trafford evidence shows:
- 18% population have a disability
- 1 in 20 children, 1 in 7 working aged adults and half of adults receiving a state pension have a disability
- A third of people with a learning disability will have a dual diagnosis of autism
- 1% of the general population will have an autistic spectrum condition
Furthermore improvements in ante-natal and post-natal care have resulted in higher survival rates for premature babies. Premature babies often have a higher level of health need than non-premature babies [i], for example neurological conditions. National statistics estimate that 7.3% of births occur before 37 weeks[ii].
1 Very premature babies are those born between 28 - 32 weeks gestation, premature babies are those born between 32 - 37 weeks gestation.
[i] [ii] Tommy's (2015) Premature birth statistics, http://www.tommys.org
Learning Disability can be difficult to project, because of a lack of consensus around terminology. Oxford Brookes University and the Institute of Public Care publish projections based on a 2004 prevalence study, taking into account changing populations, including age, mortality, and ethnicity. In 2015 there were estimated to be 4,208 people aged 18+ with learning disabilities in Trafford. By 2025, this is projected to increase by 260 people, to 4,468. In terms of age groups, the biggest percentage increases are projected to be amongst older people, with a 58% increase in 85+, 33% in 75-84 year olds, and a 30% increase in 65-74 year olds with Learning Disabilities.
|Age Group||2014||2015||2020||2025||2030||% Change 2015 - 2025|
|Aged 18 - 24||439||436||405||414||456||+5%|
|Aged 25 - 34||727||730||752||737||700||-4%|
|Aged 35 - 44||808||806||810||850||870||+8%|
|Aged 45 - 54||811||819||794||755||773||-6%|
|Aged 55 - 64||590||598||685||732||707||+18%|
|Aged 65 - 74||432||443||480||499||574||+30%|
|Aged 75 - 84||266||266||282||329||355||+33%|
Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) 2016
This table shows that there will be a 10% increase in residents living with a learning disability.
Future Developments in Trafford [top]
The table below sets out the estimated quantum of residential development that will be delivered in Trafford over the next 20 years and the emerging GMSF targets for Trafford.
|Trafford Sites||Years 1-10||Years 11-20||Total||GMSF Targets1||Total Shortfall between GMSF / Trafford Sites Years 1-20|
|Total for Years 1-10||Total for Years 11-20|
|Misc. Sites with Planning Consent2||2,506||2,506|
|Heath Lane Farm||450||450|
|Sale Town Centre||200||200|
|Stretford Town Centre||50||50|
|Unknown Future4 Opportunities||800||2,500||3,300|
1GMSF revised Option B - Objectively Assessed Need - based on most recent estimated household projections.
2Based on assessment of all valid residential planning consents at April 2016 and assumed all consented schemes are developed out.
3Based on average of 250 units per annum (Years 1-20).
4Years 1-10 - average of 80 units per annum assumed in addition to sites with planning consent that are anticipated to come foward, based on previous rates for residential units delivered via conversions/change of use in Trafford.
Years 11-20 - average of 250 units per annum assumed to take account of an estimate of unknown sites that could come through the planning system based on previous performance and an understanding of potential residential land supply in Trafford.
There is currently a shortfall between the existing housing land supply and the GMSF target of some 5,500. However, this is not unique to Trafford and options to address this are being considered as part of the preparation of the first complete version of the GMSF, which is due to be published in the autumn. Options for addressing this shortfall currently being considered are:
- Increasing density ratios on existing sites within the urban area where possible
- Reviewing the GM Green Belt which could release sites in areas such as Flixton (Flixton Golf Course) and the Timperley Wedge. Green Belt rationalisation is also required for Carrington to reach its full development potential
Draft Greater Manchester Forecasting Model - 2015 (Economic Growth) [top]
|Total Population||2015 Actual||2020 Forecast||% change 2015 - 2020||2025 Forecast||% change 2020 - 2025|
|Total Employment||2015 Actual||2020 Forecast||% change 2015 - 2020||2025 Forecast||% change 2020 - 2025|
Main Employment Growth Sectors
|Sector||Trafford Employment Figures||% change 2015 - 2020||% change 2020 - 2025|
|Business, Financial & Professional services||42,000||46,400||49,200||10.5%||6%|
|Cultural & Creative||20,400||22,100||23,100||8.3%||4.5%|
|Wholesale & Retail trade||26,200||27,600||28,900||5.3%||4.7%|
|Claimant Count 2015 Actual||Claimant Count 2020 Forecast||% Change 2015 - 2020||Claimant Count 2025 Forecast||% Change 2020 - 2025|
|NVQ Level 4+ Qualifications||2015 Actual||2020 Forecast||% change 2015 - 2020||2025 Forecast||% change 2020 - 2025|
|2015 GVA (£bn)||2020 GVA (£bn)||% growth 2015 - 2020||2025 GVA (£bn)||% growth 2020 - 2025|
TRAFFORD - CURRENT [top]
Trafford is a Local Authority in the North West of England - one of the ten authorities that make up Greater Manchester. Trafford shares borders with Salford to the North, Manchester to the East, Cheshire East to the South, and Warrington to the West.
Trafford is home to approximately 234,000 people, and approximately 12,000 businesses.
People living in areas of disadvantage often experience poorer health and social outcomes than those living in more affluent areas.
The Index of Multiple Deprivation are a collection of indicators, brought together to give an overall score intended to show deprivation levels in Lower Super Output Areas. An LSOA is a statistical geographical unit, each of which has around 1,500 people living in. There are 32,844 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in the country, and 138 in Trafford.
Each LSOA is measured against seven themes - income, employment, health and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, living environment and crime. The indices of deprivation are reported as a series of ranks, showing how deprived a particular LSOA is compared to all others in the country. 1 is most deprived, 32,844 is least deprived. The LSOAs of Trafford are reasonably evenly distributed - one LSOA in Partington is amongst the 5% most deprived areas in the country, while parts of Hale and Bowdon are in the 5% least deprived areas.
Trafford as a Local Authority ranks 222nd out of 326 local authorities, where 1 is the most deprived (Manchester).
Please follow link to view Marmot Indicators for Trafford.
Political Makeup [top]
Trafford Council is controlled by the Conservative Party. There are 63 councillors in Trafford - 3 for each of the 21 Wards in Trafford. The Conservative Party currently have 34 seats, The Labour Party have 25 seats, and Liberal Democrats have 3. Turnout in the most recent local election was 41%.
Inclusive Growth Monitor from Joseph Rowntree Foundation [top]
Joseph Rowntree Foundation have produced a report which aims to measure and compare the impact of economic growth on disadvantaged groups, called the 'Inclusive Growth Monitor'. The tool uses a range of indicators to allow areas to be scored and compared, in two buckets - Prosperity, and Inclusion. The inclusion domain includes categories relating to income, access to work, and living costs, while the Prosperity domain includes human capital, employment, and output growth.
The report has focused on Greater Manchester, allowing comparisons to be made between Trafford and the other 9 authorities in GM. The data shows that Trafford scores highest in the Prosperity theme in GM, and second highest in the Inclusion theme. The underlying data shows that Trafford scores especially highly on the human capital indicators, largely due to more affluent commuter neighbourhoods, whose residents benefit from the economic output of Manchester. It also shows that Trafford is least affordable in terms of home ownership.
Composite Normalised Scores by Greater Manchester Local Authority
Trafford 2001 - 2011 [top]
Censuses were carried out in 2001 and 2011. This section details how some of the key datasets about Trafford's residents changed in that time period.
In 2001, there were 212,200 people living in Trafford. 10 years later, there were 226,600 people - an increase of 8%.
Trafford's age profile shifted slightly between 2001 and 2011, with a reduction in the number of 30-somethings. 45 - 49 year olds saw the largest increase in terms of numbers, with 60 - 64 year olds and 0 - 4 year olds also increasing.
|Age Range||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Age||210145||226578||16433||7.82|
|Age <1 to 4||11971||14870||2899||24.22|
|Age 5 to 9||13409||14032||623||4.65|
|Age 10 to 14||14209||14076||-133||-0.94|
|Age 15 to 19||12959||13526||567||4.38|
|Age 20 to 24||10581||11776||1195||11.29|
|Age 25 to 29||13422||13764||342||2.55|
|Age 30 to 34||16002||15010||-992||-6.2|
|Age 35 to 39||17750||16430||-1320||-7.44|
|Age 40 to 44||15825||17781||1956||12.36|
|Age 45 to 49||13802||18223||4421||32.03|
|Age 50 to 54||14429||15281||852||5.9|
|Age 55 to 59||11422||12722||1300||11.38|
|Age 60 to 64||10261||12814||2553||24.88|
|Age 65 to 69||9461||9759||298||3.15|
|Age 70 to 74||8432||8566||134||1.59|
|Age 75 to 79||7149||7240||91||1.27|
|Age 80 to 84||5042||5659||617||12.24|
|Age 85 to 89||2686||3371||685||25.5|
|Age 90 to 94||1043||1269||226||21.67|
|Age 95 to 99||270||372||102||37.78|
|Age 100 and over||20||37||17||85|
The biggest change in terms of religion in Trafford between 2001 and 2011 was the increase in the number of people who declared they had no religion. The number of Muslims and Hindus almost doubled over the ten years.
|Religion||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Religion||210145||226578||16433||7.82|
|Religion not stated||13419||14307||888||6.62|
The number of people who were White British in Trafford remained fairly constant between 2001 and 2011, whilst almost all other ethnic groups increase. The exception being White Irish.
|Ethnicity||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Ethnic group||210145||226578||16433||7.82|
|Mixed: White and Black Caribbean||1444||2658||1214||84.07|
|Mixed: White and Black African||346||669||323||93.35|
|Mixed: White and Asian||717||1535||818||114.09|
|Black or Black British: Total||4107||6540||2433||59.24|
|Black or Black British: Caribbean||3034||3802||768||25.31|
|Black or Black British: African||630||1807||1177||186.83|
|Black or Black British: Other||443||931||488||110.16|
|Chinese or Other ethnic group: Total||1754||4432||2678||152.68|
Population density increased to 21.4 people per hectare in 2011, because of the increasing number of people. This increase was not universal across Trafford, however, where there are areas of very low density, such as Carrington, and high density, such as Old Trafford.
|Density||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All usual residents||210145||226578||16433||7.82|
|Density (number of persons per hectare)||19.82||21.4||1.58||7.97|
Though this measure changed between 2001 and 2011 (in terms of the number of categories), more people said their health is good in 2011 than in 2001.
|General Health||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|Fairly good health||44476||27549||-16927||-38.06|
|Not good health||18893||11839||-7054||-37.34|
Tenure in Trafford changed between 2001 and 2011 because of the transfer of social housing stock from Trafford Council to Trafford Housing Trust in 2006. Other changes include the increase of almost 12,000 people renting privately in Trafford.
|Tenure (All)||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Tenure||208456||225277||16821||8.07|
|Owned: Owned outright||54317||60645||6328||11.65|
|Owned: Owned with a mortgage or loan||104417||102719||-1698||-1.63|
|Shared ownership (part owned and part rented)||1088||1068||-20||-1.84|
|Social rented: Total||30166||31394||1228||4.07|
|Social rented: Rented from council (LA)||18891||9658||-9233||-48.88|
|Social rented: Other social rented||11275||21736||10461||92.78|
|Private rented: Total||15775||27649||11874||75.27|
|Private rented: Private landlord or letting agency||14557||25786||11229||77.14|
|Private rented: Employer of a household member||136||125||-11||-8.09|
|Private rented: Relative or friend of household||914||1489||575||62.91|
|Private rented: Other||168||249||81||48.21|
|Living rent free||2693||1802||-891||-33.09|
Distance Travelled to Work
The commute distance changed slightly between 2001 and 2011, with fewer people travelling less than 2km to work, and 2,500 more people working from home. Over 7,000 people travel more than 20km to get to work.
|Distance to Work||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Distance travelled to work||99146||110912||11766||11.87|
|Works mainly at or from home||8609||11166||2557||29.7|
|Less than 2km||17393||16539||-854||-4.91|
|2km to less than 5km||22341||23249||908||4.06|
|5km to less than 10km||24503||26282||1779||7.26|
|10km to less than 20km||15991||17480||1489||9.31|
|20km to less than 30km||2466||3071||605||24.53|
|30km to less than 40km||775||1175||400||51.61|
|40km to less than 60km||1458||1804||346||23.73|
|60km and over||1825||2535||710||38.9|
|Economic Activity||Census 2001||Census 2011||Difference||% Change|
|All categories: Economic activity||151445||162806||11361||7.5|
|Economically active: Total||103613||118064||14451||13.95|
|Self-employed with employees: Part-time||634||657||23||3.63|
|Self-employed with employees: Full-time||4145||3416||-729||-17.59|
|Self-employed without employees: Part-time||2158||4132||1974||91.47|
|Self-employed without employees: Full-time||5175||7649||2474||47.81|
|Economically inactive: Total||47832||44742||-3090||-6.46|
|Student (including full-time students)||5694||7200||1506||26.45|
|Looking after home or family||8660||6426||-2234||-25.8|
|Long-term sick or disabled||8232||6499||-1733||-21.05|