About Trafford

TRAFFORD'S NEXT TEN YEARS, 2016 - 2026

The Future Population of Trafford [top]

The Office for National Statistics release data about population projections, to 2037, using a range of factors, such as birth rate, death rate and migrant flows (local, national and international). Using 2016 - 2026 projections, data suggest that there will be an additional 15,700 people living in Trafford. In 2016, 234,600 people are estimated to be living in Trafford today.
The key points from the analysis show that there will be:

Relating this to impact on the education system, in order to maintain class sizes of approximately 30 children, Trafford would require:

From the other age groups, there are predicted to be


Toggle table of population projections
Age Band20162026Number Change
0-415,10015,1000
5-916,00016,300+300
10-1414,70016,800+2,100
15-1913,00015,300+2,300
20-2411,20010,500-700
25-2914,30013,400-900
30-3415,40015,800+400
35-3916,20017,400+1,200
40-4416,30017,200+900
45-4917,70016,300-1,400
50-5417,70015,600-2,100
55-5914,60016,400+1,800
60-6412,10016,000+3,900
65-6912,00013,100+1,100
70-749,10010,600+1,500
75-797,3009,900+2,600
80-845,8006,800+1,000
85-893,9004,500+600
90+2,2003,400+1,200
All Ages234,600250,300+15,700

Trafford Population Change by Age Group, 2016 - 2026 [top]

Trafford is split into four localities. Applying the age-based population projections to localities (using a very simple model) show that there will be differences across the borough. For example - South Locality will likely see an increase of 535 additional 90+ year olds, while Old Trafford and Stretford will see an increase of 162.

Methodology NB: These projections should be used with caution. They have been calculated using ONS population estimates. The 2016 estimates are available at ward level, the 2026 are not and therefore this calculation is based on assumptions. The numbers presented are likely to be an underestimate of true change.


Toggle table of population projections by Locality
Age BandCentralNorthSouthWest
0-40000
5-11350341547342
12-16432434695450
17-19304317451325
20-67-848-760-1,172-805
68-75358214549381
75-891,4179162,1321,417
90+306162535317

The Future of Trafford's Health [top]

Increasing Healthy Life Expectancy

Although life expectancy in Trafford is good, our healthy life expectancy is not. Healthy life expectancy is a measure of how many years people may live in a healthy state. Poor health results in poor functioning, reduced economic independence and increase public service use.

Residents in the more deprived areas of the borough start experiencing poorer health at least 10 years before pensionable age and can live for 20 years in poor health.

Toggle life expectancy chart

(Chart above is a work in progress)

Increasing healthy life expectancy will be one of the easier ways of balancing sector finances in future decades.

The NHS Five Year Forward View underlined the critical importance of a focus on prevention to address the preventable health burden and associated costs that place the sustainability of the NHS at risk. Unless we can increase our healthy life-expectancy in Trafford, we will see people suffering unnecessarily, as well as increasing the costs to themselves, their families, and society.

It's easy to underestimate the impact of effective preventative activity, but prevention gives an extremely high return on investment. As an example, it has been estimated by Public Health England that physical inactivity cost Trafford CCG at least £1,914,673 in 2013/14. This is likely to be an underestimate as it only included the costs associated with 5 of the over 20 chronic conditions that can be prevented or managed by physical activity.

We also know that in Trafford, people with serious mental illnesses are dying on average 3 years earlier than the rest of the population, and that this is due in the main to under diagnosis or treatment of physical illnesses, many of which will have preventable aspects.


Increased life expectancy for people living with a long-term condition, physical or learning disability

Significant improvements in diagnosis, understanding and care in recent decades have led to an increase in the life expectancy of people living with a long-term condition, physical or learning disability. Determining the exact number of Trafford residents living with a disability is difficult and often based on national prevalence.

In Trafford evidence shows:

Furthermore improvements in ante-natal and post-natal care have resulted in higher survival rates for premature babies[1]. Premature babies often have a higher level of health need than non-premature babies [i], for example neurological conditions. National statistics estimate that 7.3% of births occur before 37 weeks[ii].

1 Very premature babies are those born between 28 - 32 weeks gestation, premature babies are those born between 32 - 37 weeks gestation.
[i] [ii] Tommy's (2015) Premature birth statistics, http://www.tommys.org


Learning Disabilities

Learning Disability can be difficult to project, because of a lack of consensus around terminology. Oxford Brookes University and the Institute of Public Care publish projections based on a 2004 prevalence study, taking into account changing populations, including age, mortality, and ethnicity. In 2015 there were estimated to be 4,208 people aged 18+ with learning disabilities in Trafford. By 2025, this is projected to increase by 260 people, to 4,468. In terms of age groups, the biggest percentage increases are projected to be amongst older people, with a 58% increase in 85+, 33% in 75-84 year olds, and a 30% increase in 65-74 year olds with Learning Disabilities.

Toggle Learning Disability Table and Charts
Age Group 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 % Change 2015 - 2025
Aged 18 - 24 439 436 405 414 456 +5%
Aged 25 - 34 727 730 752 737 700 -4%
Aged 35 - 44 808 806 810 850 870 +8%
Aged 45 - 54 811 819 794 755 773 -6%
Aged 55 - 64 590 598 685 732 707 +18%
Aged 65 - 74 432 443 480 499 574 +30%
Aged 75 - 84 266 266 282 329 355 +33%
Aged 85+ 107 111 129 152 175 +58%
All 18+ 4,180 4,208 4,337 4,468 4,610 +10%

Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) 2016

This table shows that there will be a 10% increase in residents living with a learning disability.

Future Developments in Trafford [top]

The table below sets out the estimated quantum of residential development that will be delivered in Trafford over the next 20 years and the emerging GMSF targets for Trafford.

Toggle Housing Delivery Estimates Table
Trafford Sites Years 1-10 Years 11-20 Total GMSF Targets1 Total Shortfall between GMSF / Trafford Sites Years 1-20
Total for Years 1-10 Total for Years 11-20
Misc. Sites with Planning Consent2 2,506   2,506      
Future Opportunities
Carrington3 2,500 2,500 5,000      
Heath Lane Farm 450   450      
Pomona 500 1,000 1,500      
Trafford Waters 1,000 2,000 3,000      
Chester House 450   450      
Sale Town Centre 200   200      
Stretford Town Centre 50   50      
Unknown Future4 Opportunities 800 2,500 3,300      
Total 8,456 8,000 16,456 11,000 11,000 5,544

1GMSF revised Option B - Objectively Assessed Need - based on most recent estimated household projections.

2Based on assessment of all valid residential planning consents at April 2016 and assumed all consented schemes are developed out.

3Based on average of 250 units per annum (Years 1-20).

4Years 1-10 - average of 80 units per annum assumed in addition to sites with planning consent that are anticipated to come foward, based on previous rates for residential units delivered via conversions/change of use in Trafford.

Years 11-20 - average of 250 units per annum assumed to take account of an estimate of unknown sites that could come through the planning system based on previous performance and an understanding of potential residential land supply in Trafford.

There is currently a shortfall between the existing housing land supply and the GMSF target of some 5,500. However, this is not unique to Trafford and options to address this are being considered as part of the preparation of the first complete version of the GMSF, which is due to be published in the autumn. Options for addressing this shortfall currently being considered are:

Draft Greater Manchester Forecasting Model - 2015 (Economic Growth) [top]


Toggle GM Forecasting Model 2015 Tables

Population

Total Population 2015 Actual 2020 Forecast % change 2015 - 2020 2025 Forecast % change 2020 - 2025
Trafford 233,000 241,000 3.4% 247,000 2.5%
GM 2,733,000 2,826,000 3.3% 2,893,000 2.3%

Employment

Total Employment 2015 Actual 2020 Forecast % change 2015 - 2020 2025 Forecast % change 2020 - 2025
Trafford 156,000 164,000 5.1% 171,000 4.4%
GM 1,362,000 1,421,000 4.3% 1,469,000 3.3%

Main Employment Growth Sectors

Sector Trafford Employment Figures % change 2015 - 2020 % change 2020 - 2025
2015 2020 2025
Business, Financial & Professional services 42,000 46,400 49,200 10.5% 6%
Cultural & Creative 20,400 22,100 23,100 8.3% 4.5%
Wholesale & Retail trade 26,200 27,600 28,900 5.3% 4.7%

Unemployment

Claimant Count 2015 Actual Claimant Count 2020 Forecast % Change 2015 - 2020 Claimant Count 2025 Forecast % Change 2020 - 2025
Trafford 3,000 2,000 -33% 2,000 0%
GM 55,000 43,000 -21.8% 44,000 2.3%

Skills

NVQ Level 4+ Qualifications 2015 Actual 2020 Forecast % change 2015 - 2020 2025 Forecast % change 2020 - 2025
Trafford 52,400 55,600 6.1% 57,800 4%
GM 474,100 498,400 5% 518,500 4%

Growth

2015 GVA (£bn) 2020 GVA (£bn) % growth 2015 - 2020 2025 GVA (£bn) % growth 2020 - 2025
Trafford £6.9bn £8.0bn 16% £9.2bn 15%
GM £57.3bn £65.7bn 14.6% £74.4bn 13.2%

TRAFFORD - CURRENT [top]

Trafford is a Local Authority in the North West of England - one of the ten authorities that make up Greater Manchester. Trafford shares borders with Salford to the North, Manchester to the East, Cheshire East to the South, and Warrington to the West.
Trafford is home to approximately 234,000 people, and approximately 12,000 businesses.


Deprivation [top]

People living in areas of disadvantage often experience poorer health and social outcomes than those living in more affluent areas.

The Index of Multiple Deprivation are a collection of indicators, brought together to give an overall score intended to show deprivation levels in Lower Super Output Areas. An LSOA is a statistical geographical unit, each of which has around 1,500 people living in. There are 32,844 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in the country, and 138 in Trafford.

Each LSOA is measured against seven themes - income, employment, health and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, living environment and crime. The indices of deprivation are reported as a series of ranks, showing how deprived a particular LSOA is compared to all others in the country. 1 is most deprived, 32,844 is least deprived. The LSOAs of Trafford are reasonably evenly distributed - one LSOA in Partington is amongst the 5% most deprived areas in the country, while parts of Hale and Bowdon are in the 5% least deprived areas.

Trafford as a Local Authority ranks 222nd out of 326 local authorities, where 1 is the most deprived (Manchester).

Toggle Map showing Indices of Deprivation 2015

View the fully-featured map in a new window

Please follow link to view Marmot Indicators for Trafford.

Political Makeup [top]

Trafford Council is controlled by the Conservative Party. There are 63 councillors in Trafford - 3 for each of the 21 Wards in Trafford. The Conservative Party currently have 34 seats, The Labour Party have 25 seats, and Liberal Democrats have 3. Turnout in the most recent local election was 41%.

Toggle image showing the political makeup of Trafford

Inclusive Growth Monitor from Joseph Rowntree Foundation [top]

Joseph Rowntree Foundation have produced a report which aims to measure and compare the impact of economic growth on disadvantaged groups, called the 'Inclusive Growth Monitor'. The tool uses a range of indicators to allow areas to be scored and compared, in two buckets - Prosperity, and Inclusion. The inclusion domain includes categories relating to income, access to work, and living costs, while the Prosperity domain includes human capital, employment, and output growth.

The report has focused on Greater Manchester, allowing comparisons to be made between Trafford and the other 9 authorities in GM. The data shows that Trafford scores highest in the Prosperity theme in GM, and second highest in the Inclusion theme. The underlying data shows that Trafford scores especially highly on the human capital indicators, largely due to more affluent commuter neighbourhoods, whose residents benefit from the economic output of Manchester. It also shows that Trafford is least affordable in terms of home ownership.

Toggle Inclusive Growth Monitor Charts

Composite Normalised Scores by Greater Manchester Local Authority

Prosperity Theme chart showing Greater Manchester Authorities
Inclusion Theme chart showing Greater Manchester Authorities

Trafford 2001 - 2011 [top]

Censuses were carried out in 2001 and 2011. This section details how some of the key datasets about Trafford's residents changed in that time period.

In 2001, there were 212,200 people living in Trafford. 10 years later, there were 226,600 people - an increase of 8%.

Age

Trafford's age profile shifted slightly between 2001 and 2011, with a reduction in the number of 30-somethings. 45 - 49 year olds saw the largest increase in terms of numbers, with 60 - 64 year olds and 0 - 4 year olds also increasing.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 age breakdown
Age RangeCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Age210145226578164337.82
Age <1 to 41197114870289924.22
Age 5 to 913409140326234.65
Age 10 to 141420914076-133-0.94
Age 15 to 1912959135265674.38
Age 20 to 241058111776119511.29
Age 25 to 2913422137643422.55
Age 30 to 341600215010-992-6.2
Age 35 to 391775016430-1320-7.44
Age 40 to 441582517781195612.36
Age 45 to 491380218223442132.03
Age 50 to 5414429152818525.9
Age 55 to 591142212722130011.38
Age 60 to 641026112814255324.88
Age 65 to 69946197592983.15
Age 70 to 74843285661341.59
Age 75 to 7971497240911.27
Age 80 to 845042565961712.24
Age 85 to 892686337168525.5
Age 90 to 941043126922621.67
Age 95 to 9927037210237.78
Age 100 and over20371785

Religion

The biggest change in terms of religion in Trafford between 2001 and 2011 was the increase in the number of people who declared they had no religion. The number of Muslims and Hindus almost doubled over the ten years.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 religion breakdown
ReligionCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Religion210145226578164337.82
Christian159293143639-15654-9.83
Buddhist367768401109.26
Hindu12472271102482.12
Jewish23142413994.28
Muslim697312994602186.35
Sikh1024165262861.33
Other religion33356623369.97
No religion25175479682279390.54
Religion not stated13419143078886.62

Ethnicity

The number of people who were White British in Trafford remained fairly constant between 2001 and 2011, whilst almost all other ethnic groups increase. The exception being White Irish.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 ethnicity breakdown
EthnicityCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Ethnic group210145226578164337.82
White: Total19257519383412590.65
    White: British182710182200-510-0.28
    White: Irish58745098-776-13.21
    White: Other39916536254563.77
Mixed: Total32016031283088.41
    Mixed: White and Black Caribbean14442658121484.07
    Mixed: White and Black African34666932393.35
    Mixed: White and Asian7171535818114.09
    Mixed: Other694116947568.44
Asian: Total8508179739465111.25
    Asian: Indian38836306242362.4
    Asian: Pakistani36137027341494.49
    Asian: Bangladeshi24345721488.07
    Asian: Other76919511182153.71
Black or Black British: Total41076540243359.24
    Black or Black British: Caribbean3034380276825.31
    Black or Black British: African63018071177186.83
    Black or Black British: Other443931488110.16
Chinese or Other ethnic group: Total175444322678152.68

Population Density

Population density increased to 21.4 people per hectare in 2011, because of the increasing number of people. This increase was not universal across Trafford, however, where there are areas of very low density, such as Carrington, and high density, such as Old Trafford.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 population density breakdown
DensityCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All usual residents210145226578164337.82
Area Hectares1060410603.73-0
Density (number of persons per hectare)19.8221.41.587.97

General Health

Though this measure changed between 2001 and 2011 (in terms of the number of categories), more people said their health is good in 2011 than in 2001.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 general health breakdown
General HealthCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
Total210145226578164337.82
Good health1467761871904041427.53
Fairly good health4447627549-16927-38.06
Not good health1889311839-7054-37.34

Tenure

Tenure in Trafford changed between 2001 and 2011 because of the transfer of social housing stock from Trafford Council to Trafford Housing Trust in 2006. Other changes include the increase of almost 12,000 people renting privately in Trafford.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 tenure breakdown
Tenure (All)Census 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Tenure208456225277168218.07
Owned: Total15982216336435422.22
    Owned: Owned outright5431760645632811.65
    Owned: Owned with a mortgage or loan104417102719-1698-1.63
    Shared ownership (part owned and part rented)10881068-20-1.84
Social rented: Total301663139412284.07
    Social rented: Rented from council (LA)188919658-9233-48.88
    Social rented: Other social rented11275217361046192.78
Private rented: Total15775276491187475.27
    Private rented: Private landlord or letting agency14557257861122977.14
    Private rented: Employer of a household member136125-11-8.09
    Private rented: Relative or friend of household914148957562.91
    Private rented: Other1682498148.21
Living rent free26931802-891-33.09

Distance Travelled to Work

The commute distance changed slightly between 2001 and 2011, with fewer people travelling less than 2km to work, and 2,500 more people working from home. Over 7,000 people travel more than 20km to get to work.

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 commute breakdown
Distance to WorkCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Distance travelled to work991461109121176611.87
Works mainly at or from home860911166255729.7
Less than 2km1739316539-854-4.91
2km to less than 5km22341232499084.06
5km to less than 10km245032628217797.26
10km to less than 20km159911748014899.31
20km to less than 30km2466307160524.53
30km to less than 40km775117540051.61
40km to less than 60km1458180434623.73
60km and over1825253571038.9
Other378576113826101.08

Economic Activity

Toggle table of 2001 vs 2011 economic activity breakdown
Economic ActivityCensus 2001Census 2011Difference% Change
All categories: Economic activity151445162806113617.5
Economically active: Total1036131180641445113.95
    Employee: Part-time1802422799477526.49
    Employee: Full-time656646820125373.86
    Self-employed with employees: Part-time634657233.63
    Self-employed with employees: Full-time41453416-729-17.59
    Self-employed without employees: Part-time21584132197491.47
    Self-employed without employees: Full-time51757649247447.81
    Unemployed40876136204950.13
    Full-time student37265074134836.18
Economically inactive: Total4783244742-3090-6.46
    Retired20989217297403.53
    Student (including full-time students)56947200150626.45
    Looking after home or family86606426-2234-25.8
    Long-term sick or disabled82326499-1733-21.05
    Other42572888-1369-32.16